* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032017 06/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 43 45 43 45 43 39 37 32 31 30 29 29 28 28 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 43 45 43 45 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 35 33 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 26 24 23 29 21 20 12 13 6 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 2 -2 0 1 0 0 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 226 227 220 218 239 214 210 209 223 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.1 27.0 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 149 148 144 139 136 125 124 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 130 129 129 128 124 119 116 107 106 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 5 9 5 14 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 64 59 51 52 52 55 59 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 25 28 29 25 25 22 16 15 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 81 94 101 94 74 54 -7 -32 -74 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 95 102 130 100 8 49 10 18 70 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 8 2 3 5 0 9 -6 16 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 290 380 412 359 306 249 135 -35 -226 -367 -532 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.4 27.2 28.4 30.1 31.8 33.5 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.8 90.3 90.7 91.2 92.1 92.8 93.3 92.9 91.5 90.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 7 6 6 6 8 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 19 20 20 15 10 3 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 1. 1. -2. -11. -14. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 10. 8. 10. 8. 4. 2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.0 89.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 THREE 06/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.08 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 11.0% 6.9% 4.6% 3.7% 5.9% 0.0% 5.7% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.0% 2.5% 1.8% 1.3% 2.3% 0.2% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 THREE 06/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 THREE 06/20/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 39 43 45 43 45 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 43 41 43 35 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 35 37 29 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 25 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT