* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022017 06/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 44 45 46 44 43 40 40 42 43 46 49 52 56 57 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 44 45 45 44 42 39 40 41 43 45 49 52 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 42 41 39 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 11 15 14 20 18 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 5 8 6 7 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 246 235 219 219 183 192 207 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 26.9 28.1 27.8 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 144 143 138 126 141 137 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 147 144 143 138 126 141 137 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 10 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 65 67 69 72 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 13 12 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 5 17 7 4 17 19 25 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 59 89 115 113 70 56 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 3 2 3 14 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 320 244 193 22 105 132 67 329 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.8 9.3 9.9 10.5 11.6 12.4 13.1 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.5 55.3 57.2 59.0 60.8 64.3 68.0 71.7 75.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 30 33 21 14 4 31 15 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 8. 5. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.2 53.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 TWO 06/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.73 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.54 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 31.2% 18.9% 8.5% 7.8% 10.5% 12.6% 13.3% Logistic: 11.4% 37.8% 19.8% 10.6% 7.6% 13.5% 6.2% 9.7% Bayesian: 3.5% 37.4% 14.5% 2.5% 0.6% 5.0% 1.9% 9.7% Consensus: 7.6% 35.5% 17.8% 7.2% 5.3% 9.7% 6.9% 10.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 TWO 06/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 TWO 06/19/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 44 45 45 44 42 39 40 41 43 45 49 52 56 57 18HR AGO 35 34 38 40 41 41 40 38 35 36 37 39 41 45 48 52 53 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 34 33 31 28 29 30 32 34 38 41 45 46 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 25 23 20 21 22 24 26 30 33 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT