* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012017 05/11/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 26 31 35 39 43 44 44 46 47 50 53 56 58 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 26 31 35 39 43 44 44 46 47 50 53 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 21 22 24 25 27 29 31 32 33 34 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 15 11 10 9 10 9 4 7 7 10 11 10 7 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 -1 -2 -1 -5 -2 -4 -4 -1 1 4 16 18 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 117 123 128 125 152 184 216 200 222 210 211 205 195 160 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 162 162 164 164 164 163 162 162 161 162 162 162 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 10 8 9 7 9 8 10 9 11 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 69 66 73 77 74 72 67 65 62 61 59 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 48 35 33 41 33 31 26 26 20 23 28 46 46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 105 121 113 105 116 93 99 62 66 55 49 43 59 55 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 396 391 396 401 390 345 345 349 352 358 359 359 359 401 443 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.1 94.5 94.9 95.3 96.0 96.4 96.7 96.9 97.2 97.3 97.3 97.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 25 26 27 29 32 34 36 36 37 37 37 37 41 47 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 19. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41. 45. 48. 51. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 10. 14. 18. 19. 19. 21. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 93.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.91 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.8% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 29.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 9.6% 4.5% 1.9% 1.6% 16.3% 3.8% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.2% 13.9% 8.8% 0.6% 0.7% 12.0% 11.2% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##