* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012017 05/11/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 24 26 32 38 45 54 61 62 66 68 72 73 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 24 26 32 38 45 54 61 62 66 68 72 73 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 20 19 19 20 22 25 29 34 40 48 59 72 83 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 13 8 7 9 9 6 4 4 8 8 11 6 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -5 -5 -7 -8 -3 4 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 104 110 119 119 138 161 182 143 137 135 114 117 169 111 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 162 162 163 163 162 162 162 161 161 165 163 163 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 9 10 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 72 72 70 78 77 74 69 64 61 58 63 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 9 10 12 14 14 16 17 21 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 48 48 48 35 32 34 28 39 37 42 48 54 52 73 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 92 109 126 127 123 118 105 93 74 113 110 121 92 89 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 424 415 416 426 439 389 380 372 376 379 383 385 389 249 345 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.8 94.3 94.7 95.2 96.0 96.6 96.8 97.0 97.2 97.4 97.5 97.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 0 10 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 23 25 27 29 34 38 38 39 40 40 40 40 27 26 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 38. 41. 45. 48. 51. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 3. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 1. 7. 13. 20. 29. 36. 37. 41. 43. 47. 48. 49. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 93.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.90 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.6% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 29.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 10.1% 3.8% 1.6% 1.4% 18.7% 3.5% 7.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 12.3% 8.2% 0.5% 0.5% 12.7% 11.0% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##