* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012017 05/10/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 47 53 58 65 69 73 75 76 76 75 75 76 77 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 47 53 58 65 69 73 75 76 76 75 75 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 46 49 55 61 66 69 71 73 75 77 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 10 10 4 6 9 11 8 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 -2 0 -4 -5 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 96 96 109 106 96 124 160 176 189 184 171 182 188 165 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.6 30.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 162 164 165 164 164 163 163 162 162 160 159 166 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 9 8 9 7 9 8 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 75 73 72 73 74 79 82 79 74 71 65 62 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 52 54 52 49 53 40 44 38 45 44 55 41 58 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 113 123 112 98 115 135 149 151 114 107 69 67 90 109 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 453 438 424 415 413 432 415 378 357 324 301 267 247 360 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.5 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.5 92.9 93.3 93.7 94.1 95.0 95.7 96.2 96.5 96.5 96.4 96.1 95.9 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 5 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 22 24 26 28 32 35 36 36 33 31 27 23 37 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 25. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. 35. 35. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.1 92.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/10/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.87 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 71% is 15.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 39.1% 27.4% 19.8% 14.2% 39.2% 66.1% 71.5% Logistic: 2.1% 18.5% 10.6% 4.4% 1.8% 18.4% 54.9% 60.7% Bayesian: 1.3% 12.1% 8.4% 2.1% 0.2% 2.6% 12.2% 72.2% Consensus: 5.4% 23.2% 15.5% 8.8% 5.4% 20.1% 44.4% 68.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/10/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##