* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012017 05/10/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 64 74 84 92 93 93 91 85 76 70 70 70 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 55 64 74 84 92 93 93 91 85 76 70 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 46 49 56 66 79 91 97 96 94 89 81 79 81 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 10 11 9 8 7 11 15 16 19 12 11 15 12 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 4 1 0 0 1 -1 -2 -5 -7 -8 -5 -6 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 109 114 100 96 119 89 107 107 113 140 109 120 117 135 163 139 121 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.3 28.4 30.6 30.6 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 162 163 164 164 163 162 161 162 158 155 148 171 169 168 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.0 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.5 -51.9 -51.1 -51.8 -51.1 -52.0 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 10 8 11 8 10 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 78 78 76 76 76 75 72 66 61 58 61 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 12 14 16 19 21 22 21 17 12 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 67 66 62 55 58 58 54 49 51 51 62 65 79 77 80 86 83 200 MB DIV 152 163 156 159 160 150 190 167 150 98 88 55 101 80 97 97 112 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 514 508 508 505 505 545 511 449 399 345 286 228 170 200 98 82 105 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.1 92.6 93.1 93.6 94.2 95.3 96.2 96.8 97.1 97.1 96.9 96.7 96.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 22 24 27 35 48 47 40 35 30 24 18 10 24 27 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 34. 36. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -0. 3. 7. 9. 10. 9. 3. -3. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 29. 39. 49. 57. 58. 58. 56. 50. 41. 35. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.4 92.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012017 ONE 05/10/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 15.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 8.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 158.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.99 14.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 7.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -10.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 5.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 66% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 83% is 14.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 79% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 72.1% 55.3% 42.5% 21.5% 66.3% 82.8% 79.4% Logistic: 32.5% 80.6% 75.8% 62.7% 28.3% 81.9% 83.4% 85.8% Bayesian: 1.8% 49.7% 41.3% 15.7% 2.0% 67.8% 70.6% 51.6% Consensus: 17.8% 67.5% 57.5% 40.3% 17.3% 72.0% 78.9% 72.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ONE 05/10/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##