* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO EP222016 11/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 23 22 25 27 28 29 32 34 36 37 39 41 40 41 V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 23 22 25 27 28 29 32 34 36 37 39 41 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 24 21 19 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 20 20 16 11 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 3 8 15 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 94 95 93 88 93 113 288 304 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 141 140 141 142 142 144 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.2 -53.6 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 50 49 48 42 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -34 -30 -28 -21 -20 -24 -24 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 2 -16 -22 -9 26 -2 -23 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 5 3 4 7 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 709 791 834 863 901 980 1028 1028 1043 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.5 9.0 9.6 10.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.3 96.7 98.1 99.4 100.6 103.0 105.2 106.8 108.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 9 5 4 5 8 14 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.8 95.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING