* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO EP222016 11/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 48 50 53 55 56 56 57 58 61 62 64 65 66 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 48 50 53 55 56 56 57 58 61 62 64 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 49 48 50 49 48 47 45 44 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 16 20 22 17 16 16 9 4 2 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 6 11 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 132 120 117 113 99 97 95 129 142 291 360 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.9 27.0 27.8 28.2 27.4 27.2 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 124 135 144 148 140 137 145 147 150 155 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 62 59 55 54 54 54 51 48 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 9 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 45 37 20 7 -17 -27 -16 -11 -4 0 -15 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 18 23 31 34 43 34 -6 -1 -42 -24 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 11 9 7 6 6 7 7 7 2 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 48 181 307 383 465 613 726 782 840 835 781 700 645 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.8 10.5 11.4 12.4 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.3 87.5 88.8 90.2 91.6 94.6 97.6 100.5 102.8 104.3 105.3 105.8 106.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 15 15 12 10 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 1 3 4 5 3 9 13 16 26 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 10.6 86.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222016 OTTO 11/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222016 OTTO 11/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##