* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 81 78 71 67 68 69 67 64 68 71 76 80 83 84 V (KT) LAND 75 80 65 49 47 41 36 37 38 36 33 37 41 46 50 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 67 50 48 50 54 57 58 57 56 58 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 14 18 21 25 18 19 14 9 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 2 -2 0 0 3 7 12 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 145 144 141 138 131 120 119 112 119 99 95 97 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.0 26.1 27.5 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.9 27.9 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 137 134 131 124 115 131 140 136 126 123 136 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 135 131 130 123 114 131 140 136 126 122 135 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 72 70 66 66 61 62 61 63 63 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 11 10 9 10 12 12 12 10 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 59 59 57 53 61 35 7 -9 -21 -24 -12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 87 119 96 51 10 0 34 83 55 26 -12 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 6 11 8 5 5 11 7 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 137 53 -30 -79 28 253 400 518 649 695 705 714 722 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.3 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.6 9.9 10.6 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.4 83.3 84.1 85.1 86.1 88.3 90.6 93.1 95.4 97.7 99.8 101.8 103.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 20 11 6 2 0 2 6 4 2 2 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -8. -9. -10. -14. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 6. 3. -4. -8. -7. -6. -8. -11. -7. -4. 1. 5. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 11.2 82.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.1% 44.3% 34.7% 24.0% 16.1% 10.9% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 29.2% 50.1% 35.0% 25.0% 20.0% 18.6% 8.9% 6.0% Bayesian: 31.4% 65.6% 39.1% 23.0% 8.3% 8.6% 0.5% 0.6% Consensus: 29.9% 53.3% 36.3% 24.0% 14.8% 12.7% 6.4% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/24/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 65 49 47 41 36 37 38 36 33 37 41 46 50 53 53 18HR AGO 75 74 59 43 41 35 30 31 32 30 27 31 35 40 44 47 47 12HR AGO 75 72 71 55 53 47 42 43 44 42 39 43 47 52 56 59 59 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 57 52 53 54 52 49 53 57 62 66 69 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT