* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 69 70 72 67 62 61 61 60 61 62 66 68 69 69 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 69 70 60 45 39 39 39 38 39 40 44 46 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 66 67 59 43 43 44 43 42 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 13 13 12 11 12 23 23 27 21 19 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 3 4 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 152 151 127 121 121 121 130 129 126 115 120 95 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.8 27.3 27.0 27.9 28.6 28.4 27.4 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 147 144 133 128 125 135 145 142 129 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 143 143 140 130 127 123 135 145 142 128 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 68 70 73 73 69 67 62 60 59 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 17 17 16 11 8 9 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 64 60 59 55 49 62 34 17 -8 -14 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 79 74 62 48 83 88 59 51 71 87 66 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 2 10 11 7 5 9 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 154 197 199 171 119 -22 31 229 339 446 545 624 657 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.0 10.7 10.5 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.2 80.8 81.3 82.0 82.6 84.1 86.1 88.4 90.6 92.6 94.6 96.6 98.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 8 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 35 34 36 35 12 3 1 4 8 7 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -8. -13. -14. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. 1. 3. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 10.8 80.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.56 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 29.0% 19.4% 12.7% 10.0% 10.9% 11.0% 8.7% Logistic: 6.4% 38.4% 20.0% 7.1% 9.1% 12.4% 7.7% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 17.0% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% 1.7% 2.5% Consensus: 6.0% 28.1% 14.0% 6.7% 6.4% 8.3% 6.8% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/23/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 67 69 70 60 45 39 39 39 38 39 40 44 46 47 47 18HR AGO 65 64 65 67 68 58 43 37 37 37 36 37 38 42 44 45 45 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 64 54 39 33 33 33 32 33 34 38 40 41 41 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 46 31 25 25 25 24 25 26 30 32 33 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT