* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 58 63 67 72 67 61 56 56 55 59 61 63 62 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 58 63 67 72 48 40 35 34 34 37 39 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 55 56 58 62 64 45 38 37 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 18 20 17 13 15 12 19 22 24 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -6 -6 -4 -6 -3 -3 2 0 3 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 151 153 141 145 153 134 145 139 146 133 133 129 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 145 145 146 148 143 137 131 133 136 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 138 139 139 140 143 139 133 127 130 134 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 6 4 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 59 61 63 68 70 68 71 71 74 71 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 17 17 19 18 19 14 11 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 49 56 57 58 71 60 67 70 56 68 42 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 84 73 64 53 91 79 91 86 91 77 66 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 1 9 9 10 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 132 127 123 131 149 214 174 58 -77 30 160 264 362 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.0 79.2 79.4 79.8 80.1 80.9 81.9 83.2 84.6 86.2 87.8 89.5 91.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 3 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 45 44 41 39 35 38 27 12 5 4 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -0. -8. -13. -16. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 22. 17. 12. 6. 6. 5. 9. 11. 13. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 10.7 79.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.35 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.5% 10.9% 7.6% 6.8% 9.9% 12.6% 13.2% Logistic: 5.5% 25.5% 11.3% 6.4% 6.6% 15.4% 18.9% 24.0% Bayesian: 3.6% 24.9% 5.7% 0.5% 0.1% 2.2% 10.1% 0.9% Consensus: 5.3% 22.7% 9.3% 4.8% 4.5% 9.1% 13.9% 12.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/22/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 56 58 63 67 72 48 40 35 34 34 37 39 41 40 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 55 60 64 69 45 37 32 31 31 34 36 38 37 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 50 55 59 64 40 32 27 26 26 29 31 33 32 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 47 51 56 32 24 19 18 18 21 23 25 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT