* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 97 84 73 62 43 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 97 84 73 62 43 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 98 87 76 66 49 36 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 24 26 26 34 35 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 7 10 13 5 -3 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 214 228 236 229 236 249 253 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.7 26.3 25.5 25.0 24.4 23.8 23.4 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 131 126 117 112 105 98 94 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 52 51 51 42 32 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 19 19 17 12 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -32 -47 -50 -24 3 -7 -13 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 70 88 69 50 16 -13 -12 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 6 5 5 8 9 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1214 1211 1218 1197 1158 1061 956 868 798 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.2 21.4 22.4 23.2 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.4 122.1 122.5 122.8 122.8 122.4 122.0 121.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -20. -31. -41. -50. -57. -62. -66. -69. -71. -74. -77. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -21. -23. -22. -21. -20. -21. -24. -27. -30. -31. -29. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -22. -28. -28. -28. -26. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -26. -37. -48. -67. -80. -92.-102.-107.-111.-115.-117.-121.-123.-125.-127. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.2 120.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 774.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##