* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 116 105 92 80 61 42 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 116 105 92 80 61 42 29 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 116 104 92 81 62 46 35 28 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 17 24 23 28 34 33 31 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 8 6 8 13 -1 -4 -5 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 202 216 227 236 226 244 241 239 237 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.6 26.7 26.4 25.7 24.8 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 140 130 127 119 109 104 101 97 95 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 53 52 50 40 31 27 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 22 20 18 16 11 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -22 -32 -48 -53 -4 -12 5 -8 -21 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 56 60 71 62 31 2 -4 5 20 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -1 2 4 3 6 7 4 7 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1184 1194 1214 1207 1206 1125 1069 1031 1009 988 974 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.6 21.3 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.6 121.4 121.9 122.4 122.8 122.8 122.8 122.8 122.8 122.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 5 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -13. -25. -37. -49. -60. -69. -78. -82. -85. -86. -89. -93. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -11. -15. -20. -22. -20. -18. -16. -16. -19. -22. -25. -26. -23. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -13. -20. -26. -30. -31. -29. -26. -24. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -20. -33. -45. -64. -83. -96.-108.-118.-125.-130.-132.-135.-137.-138.-139. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.7 119.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 826.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##