* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 135 134 129 119 98 75 55 40 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 135 134 129 119 98 75 55 40 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 132 129 121 110 86 64 46 35 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 8 9 13 18 28 31 30 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 2 6 12 12 -1 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 150 148 174 209 215 227 225 243 233 233 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.3 27.6 26.7 25.7 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 148 140 130 119 109 106 105 104 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.4 -53.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 60 59 56 51 43 35 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 23 20 20 17 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -19 -18 -24 -31 -49 -14 -10 0 -10 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 69 44 64 76 45 10 -9 -6 -1 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -3 1 1 2 5 3 1 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1076 1127 1157 1169 1190 1192 1145 1102 1092 1107 1124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.8 19.1 20.1 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.2 119.3 120.2 121.0 122.1 122.5 122.6 122.9 123.4 123.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 6 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 28 23 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -22. -36. -48. -59. -69. -77. -81. -83. -84. -87. -90. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -11. -9. -8. -9. -10. -13. -15. -16. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. -2. -8. -13. -17. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 4. -1. -11. -32. -55. -75. -90.-101.-112.-117.-121.-123.-126.-127.-127. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 15.9 117.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 716.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.2% 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 18 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##