* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 94 101 105 109 110 101 86 70 49 33 28 25 22 19 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 94 101 105 109 110 101 86 70 49 33 28 25 22 19 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 94 100 102 102 99 87 70 54 38 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 7 6 8 16 22 31 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 3 -1 1 0 6 11 13 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 96 180 198 187 180 215 224 224 226 250 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.8 28.1 26.1 25.4 24.6 24.2 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 149 143 145 124 116 107 102 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 60 65 64 60 56 49 40 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 18 19 20 19 16 14 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -11 -11 -10 -4 -12 -25 -55 -22 -22 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 76 60 67 50 62 93 67 15 -28 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 2 4 2 8 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 859 882 925 973 1036 1114 1138 1121 1056 1001 943 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.4 17.2 18.4 19.9 21.1 21.9 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.3 114.6 115.8 117.1 119.3 120.9 121.9 122.4 122.5 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 22 22 23 23 17 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -27. -28. -30. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -7. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 20. 24. 25. 16. 1. -15. -36. -52. -57. -60. -63. -66. -69. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.4 112.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 11.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 8.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 452.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 58.9% 58.4% 53.8% 52.2% 44.5% 30.6% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 64.2% 56.2% 62.2% 63.1% 42.4% 47.9% 9.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 60.9% 65.5% 55.6% 44.8% 14.1% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 61.3% 60.1% 57.2% 53.4% 33.7% 29.2% 8.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##