* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 88 93 97 98 96 93 85 71 55 37 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 88 93 97 98 96 93 85 71 55 37 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 90 96 99 100 96 87 73 56 40 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 4 2 5 6 12 16 23 29 42 43 48 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 5 3 0 0 0 5 12 2 -1 -5 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 115 219 230 245 240 233 229 231 240 262 272 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.0 25.8 24.5 23.8 22.4 22.0 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 151 149 143 134 121 107 100 85 80 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.8 -55.4 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 62 64 65 62 57 57 48 38 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 15 15 15 18 18 15 12 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -20 -13 -13 -13 -8 -19 -51 -48 -32 -27 -25 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 85 68 52 52 85 83 84 53 11 -15 -14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -6 -4 -1 0 5 13 8 12 17 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 757 847 861 903 961 1059 1083 1074 1005 873 739 617 512 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.9 18.0 19.6 21.2 22.8 24.3 25.4 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.6 112.0 113.3 114.6 115.8 118.0 119.8 121.1 121.8 121.7 121.3 120.6 120.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 20 20 21 23 22 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -11. -15. -20. -25. -29. -31. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -24. -26. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 2. -3. -9. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 13. 17. 18. 16. 13. 5. -9. -25. -43. -60. -74. -78. -81. -85. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.2 110.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 14.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 12.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 9.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 7.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 390.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 -5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 67.5% 61.3% 61.1% 60.1% 49.3% 34.4% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 39.3% 31.7% 38.8% 33.8% 12.8% 25.3% 16.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 48.3% 38.0% 32.4% 20.0% 3.8% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 51.7% 43.7% 44.1% 37.9% 22.0% 20.9% 11.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##