* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 73 82 88 97 100 96 86 72 57 41 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 64 73 82 88 97 100 96 86 72 57 41 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 64 73 81 87 97 100 94 81 63 46 34 25 20 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 5 4 6 11 17 20 22 37 39 40 43 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 1 -2 0 -1 6 10 4 0 0 -3 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 30 90 144 233 250 232 226 225 229 235 262 277 283 279 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.5 27.9 27.0 26.0 24.4 24.1 23.5 23.0 22.9 22.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 158 155 154 151 150 143 133 122 106 102 95 89 88 84 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 -54.9 -55.6 -55.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 64 62 63 63 59 57 54 46 38 31 29 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 18 20 19 17 13 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -26 -21 -13 -10 -9 -11 -21 -40 -45 -35 -29 -38 -48 -62 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 96 99 106 94 60 75 81 106 74 44 -22 -31 -21 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -1 -4 -2 1 11 12 8 11 10 6 8 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 597 649 727 818 829 906 983 1007 999 915 807 699 602 528 462 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.4 18.4 19.7 21.3 22.6 23.6 24.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.8 109.1 110.4 111.7 113.0 115.5 117.5 119.2 120.3 120.6 120.6 120.2 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 19 17 20 18 22 17 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -4. -9. -13. -18. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 10. 6. 1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 27. 33. 42. 45. 41. 31. 17. 2. -14. -27. -41. -51. -56. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.7 107.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 17.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 18.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 17.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 14.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 18.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 11.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -10.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 5.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 96% is 7.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 95% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 13.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 87% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 62.8% 95.8% 95.4% 86.3% 67.5% 86.7% 59.0% 18.8% Logistic: 66.0% 78.6% 81.9% 79.8% 59.6% 80.9% 51.8% 6.9% Bayesian: 30.1% 65.2% 71.4% 60.1% 16.4% 48.4% 11.0% 0.1% Consensus: 53.0% 79.8% 82.9% 75.4% 47.8% 72.0% 40.6% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##