* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202016 10/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 61 71 76 81 76 69 59 45 35 24 21 18 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 61 71 76 81 76 69 59 45 35 24 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 46 54 62 64 61 52 42 32 25 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 5 7 3 6 8 10 17 25 36 36 33 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 3 9 10 0 -7 -3 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 329 332 339 25 59 195 246 242 242 231 232 249 261 246 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.0 29.6 29.1 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.8 26.0 25.5 24.7 24.4 24.2 23.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 166 162 157 149 148 147 142 123 117 108 105 103 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.3 -54.6 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 67 65 65 65 65 64 64 60 48 29 21 21 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 14 17 17 21 20 18 16 11 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -26 -17 -24 -22 -15 -16 -13 -16 -25 -3 25 11 7 -21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 93 85 77 85 90 60 65 74 117 61 30 -5 -8 31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 3 9 11 11 3 4 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 547 572 606 645 707 828 868 959 1009 1037 1068 1078 1100 1170 1258 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.8 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.5 107.6 108.8 110.0 112.4 114.6 116.7 118.5 120.0 121.1 122.0 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 46 43 24 18 18 19 22 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 16. 14. 12. 8. 2. -2. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 31. 41. 46. 51. 46. 39. 29. 15. 5. -6. -9. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 105.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 TWENTY 10/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.90 10.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 42.3% 28.8% 19.9% 0.0% 35.5% 45.4% 55.5% Logistic: 14.4% 53.0% 40.7% 24.8% 13.4% 54.8% 59.5% 28.9% Bayesian: 2.7% 18.8% 11.7% 2.7% 0.3% 7.0% 7.1% 7.0% Consensus: 10.0% 38.0% 27.1% 15.8% 4.6% 32.4% 37.3% 30.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 TWENTY 10/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##