* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 61 62 55 42 38 34 33 32 31 29 26 24 24 23 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 61 62 55 42 38 34 33 32 31 29 26 24 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 62 61 59 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 17 22 28 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 16 13 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 207 169 187 175 164 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.1 17.2 15.2 11.6 8.4 7.6 8.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 77 74 71 69 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 73 71 69 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -55.7 -54.7 -53.2 -52.3 -50.3 -48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 1.1 4.3 4.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 58 52 34 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 37 39 43 39 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 189 217 281 302 303 302 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 52 54 40 51 53 -158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 -38 20 -34 -25 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 936 960 1036 1128 1270 1473 1425 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.6 45.9 48.2 50.9 53.6 58.6 63.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.0 40.4 38.9 37.7 36.5 34.3 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 25 27 28 27 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 22 CX,CY: 13/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -24. -30. -35. -38. -41. -45. -48. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. -0. -5. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 2. -1. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 22. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -3. -10. -23. -27. -31. -32. -33. -34. -36. -39. -41. -41. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 43.6 42.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/18/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 63 61 62 55 42 38 34 33 32 31 29 26 24 24 23 18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 62 55 42 38 34 33 32 31 29 26 24 24 23 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 60 53 40 36 32 31 30 29 27 24 22 22 21 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 49 36 32 28 27 26 25 23 20 18 18 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT