* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 61 59 57 54 45 31 30 30 30 29 28 27 27 26 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 61 59 57 54 45 31 30 30 30 29 28 27 27 26 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 60 59 58 53 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 12 14 19 12 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 0 8 16 3 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 189 185 157 160 187 148 220 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.0 21.8 20.4 17.0 14.9 8.5 7.2 7.8 8.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 88 84 76 73 68 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 76 79 76 72 70 67 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.3 -56.0 -56.0 -54.8 -51.6 -50.2 -48.5 -48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.0 -0.2 0.3 4.2 4.1 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 55 55 56 49 36 55 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 40 39 38 37 41 41 34 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 183 183 199 230 287 310 302 312 400 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 40 45 46 47 45 38 -64 -153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -12 -8 -19 -48 -14 -37 -7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 898 875 887 918 992 1192 1357 1431 1311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.9 42.3 43.7 45.9 48.0 52.9 57.5 62.0 66.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.3 43.9 42.6 41.1 39.5 37.4 35.8 33.9 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 17 21 24 25 24 23 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 860 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -24. -30. -34. -37. -41. -44. -48. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -2. -4. -13. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. 18. 20. 23. 24. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -20. -34. -35. -35. -35. -36. -37. -38. -38. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 40.9 45.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 63 61 59 57 54 45 31 30 30 30 29 28 27 27 26 18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 59 57 54 45 31 30 30 30 29 28 27 27 26 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 57 55 52 43 29 28 28 28 27 26 25 25 24 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 51 48 39 25 24 24 24 23 22 21 21 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT