* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 66 64 61 56 49 46 40 28 28 26 23 21 20 19 V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 66 64 61 56 49 46 40 28 28 26 23 21 20 19 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 70 67 64 61 60 61 61 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 20 23 18 13 4 9 15 22 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -4 -2 0 -2 7 20 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 228 239 248 240 251 212 166 179 140 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 23.9 24.1 23.5 22.7 21.6 19.8 14.7 8.6 7.5 8.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 95 97 93 89 86 81 72 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 80 81 78 76 76 74 69 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -52.4 -53.4 -54.6 -55.0 -56.3 -56.6 -55.7 -52.5 -51.1 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.3 -0.3 4.2 3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 57 59 57 59 59 62 59 52 38 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 50 49 48 47 45 43 39 38 42 42 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 191 191 188 183 187 168 161 218 288 276 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 9 45 35 26 45 51 45 4 33 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -16 -3 -3 -1 1 0 -27 -34 -72 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 886 903 923 925 932 902 901 1007 1210 1396 1433 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.9 40.2 41.6 44.4 48.1 52.5 57.4 62.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.7 47.9 47.2 46.5 45.8 44.3 42.0 39.3 37.0 35.1 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 8 13 19 22 24 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -20. -28. -35. -42. -47. -51. -54. -58. -59. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. -0. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -14. -19. -15. -16. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -19. -26. -29. -35. -47. -47. -49. -52. -54. -55. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 39.4 48.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.7 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 72 69 66 64 61 56 49 46 40 28 28 26 23 21 20 19 18HR AGO 75 74 71 68 66 63 58 51 48 42 30 30 28 25 23 22 21 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 66 63 58 51 48 42 30 30 28 25 23 22 21 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 60 55 48 45 39 27 27 25 22 20 19 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT