* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 70 67 64 59 54 49 40 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 70 67 64 59 54 49 40 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 71 67 63 59 59 59 56 50 45 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 31 21 21 19 8 12 11 15 25 27 17 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -4 -3 0 -3 0 19 16 4 7 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 228 227 240 254 256 224 187 157 176 142 213 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.2 22.6 23.5 23.4 23.2 22.4 20.9 16.9 12.5 7.8 7.8 8.1 8.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 88 93 92 91 88 84 75 70 68 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 76 79 77 77 77 75 70 67 66 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.6 -53.8 -54.8 -55.8 -56.4 -56.0 -53.8 -51.5 -50.6 -49.1 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 2.0 2.8 2.4 2.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 -0.4 0.3 3.6 2.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 51 57 59 56 58 61 61 55 47 33 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 49 50 49 48 47 44 41 39 37 33 30 26 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 178 184 186 180 177 172 155 184 267 278 251 255 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 10 21 42 37 38 56 71 21 43 38 -146 -208 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -17 -7 -15 -5 -2 3 -2 -9 -41 31 -49 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 854 864 881 892 907 904 869 908 1056 1286 1468 1423 1320 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 39.6 39.7 39.9 40.0 40.9 43.1 46.3 50.1 54.5 58.8 62.8 66.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.8 48.9 48.0 47.3 46.7 45.2 43.3 41.0 38.6 36.4 34.5 33.0 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 5 6 10 15 19 22 23 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -28. -35. -42. -47. -52. -56. -59. -61. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -16. -19. -26. -33. -39. -53. -51. -50. -47. -46. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -26. -35. -49. -60. -68. -85. -86. -86. -84. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 39.4 49.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 70 67 64 59 54 49 40 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 70 67 64 59 54 49 40 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 65 60 55 50 41 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 57 52 47 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT