* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/15/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 57 57 56 56 56 54 50 51 46 35 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 58 57 57 56 56 56 54 50 51 46 35 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 55 52 48 49 53 56 58 56 51 45 41 39 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 51 46 42 32 21 18 10 6 10 22 30 17 14 23 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 10 15 1 -4 7 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 227 219 229 230 257 260 245 204 173 168 142 191 198 203 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 25.1 24.3 23.6 24.2 24.3 23.0 21.5 19.0 13.6 8.6 7.5 8.2 8.4 8.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 106 99 94 97 98 91 86 79 71 67 66 66 66 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 90 84 80 81 81 78 76 73 68 66 65 65 65 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.7 -54.7 -56.0 -56.6 -56.1 -54.2 -52.3 -51.7 -50.8 -50.7 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.7 2.9 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 2.0 2.2 1.8 -0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 45 50 57 56 57 58 55 53 44 37 48 59 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 46 49 50 50 47 44 42 39 38 43 41 36 26 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 152 172 180 190 187 178 160 167 244 265 254 220 249 175 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 117 71 -1 16 35 44 64 48 30 38 53 75 -107 -130 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -21 -15 -24 -9 -11 -2 2 -5 0 -24 -17 -40 18 11 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 979 952 937 945 958 974 951 906 908 1006 1219 1398 1509 1420 1411 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.3 38.6 38.8 38.9 39.2 40.1 41.8 44.6 48.7 52.6 56.4 59.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.5 51.2 49.9 49.0 48.1 46.9 45.6 44.0 41.8 39.3 36.9 34.8 32.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 9 7 6 6 9 13 19 22 20 20 18 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 19 CX,CY: 17/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -29. -33. -37. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -6. -8. -3. -5. -14. -27. -47. -45. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -10. -9. -14. -25. -44. -69. -69. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.9 52.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.5 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 58 57 57 56 56 56 54 50 51 46 35 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 58 57 57 57 55 51 52 47 36 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 54 54 54 52 48 49 44 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 49 49 49 47 43 44 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT