* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 78 72 66 58 59 59 59 57 58 58 53 48 46 47 41 V (KT) LAND 95 86 78 72 66 58 59 59 59 57 58 58 53 48 46 47 41 V (KT) LGEM 95 87 80 75 70 66 61 54 49 51 56 59 57 52 51 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 44 45 45 47 50 44 20 6 5 6 14 16 17 23 4 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 6 6 6 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 1 0 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 236 245 245 240 234 232 233 217 266 261 232 181 163 196 171 75 318 SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.1 25.5 25.8 24.6 25.2 23.8 23.9 24.3 23.7 23.4 21.2 18.1 15.7 14.2 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 117 112 114 103 106 94 94 97 94 94 84 76 72 71 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 109 103 99 100 89 88 78 78 80 79 80 75 70 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -54.5 -55.8 -56.4 -57.0 -56.5 -56.7 -55.2 -56.4 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.1 3.1 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.4 2.0 1.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 43 43 42 42 45 46 55 57 58 53 48 44 44 46 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 36 37 38 44 51 52 49 45 42 41 37 34 35 38 35 850 MB ENV VOR 50 54 69 76 100 118 193 208 203 194 168 137 130 138 152 85 -20 200 MB DIV 81 62 39 46 71 80 52 15 14 22 10 21 29 46 19 15 -11 700-850 TADV 14 6 -4 -16 -17 -20 -12 -3 -2 1 -3 -1 0 1 -19 -1 48 LAND (KM) 1104 1091 1041 1035 1022 978 896 894 900 914 911 898 958 1101 1279 1504 1269 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 34.0 34.9 35.8 36.6 37.9 38.8 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.9 40.9 42.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.9 62.3 60.7 58.8 56.9 53.2 50.9 49.5 48.6 47.9 46.8 45.3 42.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 18 17 13 8 4 3 4 6 9 13 15 18 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 16 CX,CY: 10/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -20. -31. -41. -50. -56. -61. -66. -71. -74. -77. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -19. -24. -34. -38. -34. -29. -21. -15. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 9. 18. 21. 19. 12. 8. 5. -0. -5. -4. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -23. -29. -37. -36. -36. -36. -38. -37. -37. -42. -47. -49. -48. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 33.0 63.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 655.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 6( 22) 3( 24) 0( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 86 78 72 66 58 59 59 59 57 58 58 53 48 46 47 41 18HR AGO 95 94 86 80 74 66 67 67 67 65 66 66 61 56 54 55 49 12HR AGO 95 92 91 85 79 71 72 72 72 70 71 71 66 61 59 60 54 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 79 71 72 72 72 70 71 71 66 61 59 60 54 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 68 69 69 69 67 68 68 63 58 56 57 51 IN 6HR 95 86 77 71 68 64 65 65 65 63 64 64 59 54 52 53 47 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT