* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 104 94 83 68 61 63 60 57 55 55 54 55 52 49 43 V (KT) LAND 115 112 104 94 83 68 61 63 60 57 55 55 54 55 52 49 43 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 108 101 93 79 72 63 54 50 53 58 59 58 55 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 33 40 43 47 53 52 21 9 6 15 11 11 6 15 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 7 9 8 8 1 -3 1 0 -3 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 230 231 227 236 239 234 237 227 214 260 258 189 167 176 199 223 212 SST (C) 27.2 26.8 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.7 25.4 24.8 25.4 25.3 24.5 23.2 20.6 22.4 20.2 17.3 13.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 128 124 119 113 109 102 105 103 98 91 80 90 81 75 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 108 112 109 105 98 93 85 85 83 81 77 71 78 73 69 66 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.9 -54.5 -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -56.3 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 46 46 44 44 41 46 50 53 51 49 51 52 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 34 36 36 40 45 53 51 47 45 44 41 40 36 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 52 45 65 95 113 182 196 194 177 160 125 137 146 121 59 200 MB DIV 54 64 73 67 57 87 68 99 3 9 18 7 29 51 40 49 25 700-850 TADV 14 9 11 10 2 -23 -12 -13 5 2 0 2 -3 -7 -10 -16 -12 LAND (KM) 1049 1071 1110 1093 1046 1026 1024 948 929 936 901 831 760 728 806 995 1242 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.7 32.7 33.7 34.7 36.4 37.5 38.2 38.5 38.5 38.9 39.7 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.2 65.2 64.2 62.7 61.2 57.5 54.3 52.1 50.9 50.5 50.1 49.5 48.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 17 15 12 7 3 2 4 6 9 13 15 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -8. -11. -18. -29. -43. -57. -69. -77. -84. -90. -95. -98.-100.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -19. -26. -38. -44. -43. -38. -27. -19. -14. -11. -6. -3. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 13. 22. 21. 16. 13. 10. 6. 4. -2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -11. -21. -32. -47. -54. -52. -55. -58. -60. -60. -61. -60. -63. -66. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 30.6 66.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 717.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 26( 49) 9( 54) 3( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 112 104 94 83 68 61 63 60 57 55 55 54 55 52 49 43 18HR AGO 115 114 106 96 85 70 63 65 62 59 57 57 56 57 54 51 45 12HR AGO 115 112 111 101 90 75 68 70 67 64 62 62 61 62 59 56 50 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 94 79 72 74 71 68 66 66 65 66 63 60 54 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 81 74 76 73 70 68 68 67 68 65 62 56 IN 6HR 115 112 103 97 94 86 79 81 78 75 73 73 72 73 70 67 61 IN 12HR 115 112 104 95 89 85 78 80 77 74 72 72 71 72 69 66 60