* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/12/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 86 88 88 85 81 80 82 80 74 70 67 63 61 60 53 V (KT) LAND 80 83 86 88 88 85 81 80 82 80 74 70 67 63 61 60 53 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 87 89 89 84 80 75 68 57 47 45 49 52 55 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 15 20 24 32 47 50 51 39 20 11 1 4 13 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 2 4 8 7 8 2 -2 -4 0 1 0 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 260 232 226 222 223 224 232 228 226 222 217 218 247 253 228 203 214 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 27.7 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.1 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.1 21.6 15.3 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 141 143 133 126 124 120 115 91 89 87 88 89 83 68 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 121 123 115 111 109 104 97 78 74 72 73 74 72 64 63 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -53.3 -55.6 -56.6 -57.3 -57.1 -56.7 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 2.7 3.5 2.0 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 50 49 49 48 43 39 36 43 45 47 49 53 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 30 32 33 35 39 43 50 52 49 46 43 40 39 39 37 850 MB ENV VOR 88 89 86 87 68 62 64 104 157 190 187 187 162 147 144 150 163 200 MB DIV 41 72 86 84 62 81 55 108 62 32 2 -5 2 1 29 43 68 700-850 TADV 9 8 13 16 20 13 0 -19 -18 -13 -4 13 0 0 11 12 -2 LAND (KM) 926 988 1050 1072 1039 1074 1005 921 839 767 736 750 753 724 621 466 330 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.6 30.4 32.5 34.9 37.1 38.8 39.8 40.1 40.0 40.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.1 67.1 66.8 66.5 64.7 61.9 58.6 55.8 53.6 52.3 52.0 51.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 11 15 17 16 12 7 3 1 2 3 7 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 22 12 7 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -21. -27. -32. -37. -42. -45. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. -22. -24. -23. -21. -18. -15. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 15. 25. 28. 23. 19. 13. 8. 5. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 5. 1. -0. 2. 0. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -20. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 27.6 67.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 452.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 17.1% 11.4% 8.2% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 9.3% 4.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 12.6% 4.9% 2.1% 7.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.5% 10.4% 6.1% 5.9% 2.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 11( 26) 10( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 86 88 88 85 81 80 82 80 74 70 67 63 61 60 53 18HR AGO 80 79 82 84 84 81 77 76 78 76 70 66 63 59 57 56 49 12HR AGO 80 77 76 78 78 75 71 70 72 70 64 60 57 53 51 50 43 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 67 63 62 64 62 56 52 49 45 43 42 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 62 58 57 59 57 51 47 44 40 38 37 30 IN 12HR 80 83 86 77 71 67 63 62 64 62 56 52 49 45 43 42 35