* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 56 53 51 44 36 29 24 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 56 53 51 44 36 29 24 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 59 56 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 43 42 44 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 4 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 249 254 250 250 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.8 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 127 124 124 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 107 109 107 107 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.4 -49.2 -49.1 -49.2 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.4 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 31 34 37 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 26 27 31 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 131 138 146 156 140 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 -4 9 -3 -5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -20 -18 -4 16 50 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 261 402 545 662 675 745 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.2 35.4 35.5 36.0 36.4 37.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.9 71.3 69.7 67.9 66.1 62.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 17 17 10 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -23. -29. -35. -38. -42. -45. -48. -53. -56. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -12. -14. -21. -29. -36. -41. -45. -48. -49. -53. -57. -59. -62. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 35.2 72.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 437.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.8 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/09/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 56 53 51 44 36 29 24 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 58 55 53 46 38 31 26 22 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 56 49 41 34 29 25 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 46 38 31 26 22 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT