* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 50 45 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 57 52 49 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 53 48 43 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 41 48 49 45 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 2 -4 -1 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 235 243 245 239 244 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.6 26.0 27.2 28.0 27.0 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 114 126 136 123 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 94 97 107 113 103 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 0 0 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 39 35 30 26 23 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 33 31 30 23 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 55 62 83 116 131 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 117 90 64 28 14 -13 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -15 -22 -25 -32 -13 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -4 6 48 90 174 331 497 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.9 34.3 34.4 34.5 34.0 33.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.0 77.9 76.8 75.6 74.4 72.7 70.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 18 26 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -22. -28. -33. -36. -39. -42. -44. -48. -50. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -7. -6. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -12. -21. -25. -27. -29. -31. -32. -32. -31. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -20. -23. -36. -52. -60. -65. -66. -67. -67. -70. -74. -77. -80. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 33.6 79.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 451.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 57 52 49 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 57 52 49 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 53 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT