* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 51 47 45 33 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 57 51 47 45 33 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 55 49 45 42 34 26 19 16 16 16 15 16 17 17 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 32 38 45 47 47 46 40 37 32 29 30 23 26 29 33 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 6 4 -1 8 16 11 5 3 2 1 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 236 226 234 243 242 238 243 243 242 249 246 227 239 227 253 263 283 SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.0 27.3 28.1 27.1 27.9 28.5 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 113 127 137 124 134 143 153 157 156 155 154 156 155 158 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 96 107 114 104 113 122 132 135 134 131 130 131 130 132 133 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.0 -51.0 -51.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 2 1 0 1 1 3 4 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 47 40 35 30 20 15 14 17 15 17 22 22 23 24 25 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 36 34 33 33 25 20 16 12 22 22 25 28 34 37 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 73 70 90 115 112 110 101 52 32 19 -20 -12 -49 -48 -39 200 MB DIV 123 116 92 70 57 -9 -41 -29 -16 -12 -17 -15 -22 -12 -28 -50 -16 700-850 TADV 13 -9 -14 -13 -31 -40 -42 -22 -6 1 -4 1 3 2 1 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 21 32 44 85 125 259 423 581 624 521 460 427 391 366 342 314 285 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.0 33.5 33.6 33.7 33.2 31.9 30.2 28.5 27.1 26.1 25.5 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.9 79.0 78.2 77.1 76.1 74.4 73.5 73.5 74.0 74.8 75.5 75.9 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 8 7 8 9 8 7 5 3 2 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 11 34 11 24 33 38 54 65 76 71 71 69 66 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. -31. -33. -33. -33. -32. -33. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -12. -21. -29. -37. -25. -27. -25. -20. -13. -9. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -20. -32. -49. -61. -68. -50. -48. -39. -32. -24. -21. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 32.5 79.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/08/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 57 51 47 45 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 58 54 52 40 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 57 55 43 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 41 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT