* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 43 42 41 40 39 38 39 40 42 40 39 35 35 33 V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 43 42 41 40 39 38 39 40 42 40 39 35 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 38 36 32 29 26 25 24 24 25 26 28 29 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A TROP TROP N/A TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 44 46 43 38 39 38 36 28 N/A 13 28 N/A 41 42 48 51 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -2 4 6 0 3 8 N/A 2 -1 N/A 2 4 1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 359 360 3 2 358 8 11 21 N/A 299 260 N/A 233 231 248 242 239 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.6 28.4 28.6 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 153 154 154 155 153 143 141 144 130 126 125 121 116 106 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 130 129 128 132 131 122 120 123 110 106 106 102 98 90 83 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 N/A -52.0 -52.7 N/A -52.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 N/A 0.5 0.7 N/A 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 N/A 6 5 N/A 6 6 5 4 1 700-500 MB RH 39 38 40 45 49 55 53 55 N/A 56 48 N/A 40 40 40 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 19 19 19 19 20 LOST 19 20 LOST 21 25 26 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR 12 5 17 28 22 22 98 122 N/A 123 91 N/A 53 45 82 122 154 200 MB DIV -21 -17 41 59 19 41 9 24 N/A 19 3 N/A 49 60 46 44 61 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 8 10 10 11 N/A 5 2 N/A 4 7 14 9 20 LAND (KM) 842 797 748 731 714 746 821 923 1041 1102 1007 966 941 886 819 790 736 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 25.7 25.2 25.1 24.9 25.2 26.1 27.2 28.4 29.8 31.3 32.8 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.5 65.4 65.3 65.3 65.4 65.6 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.2 65.8 64.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 1 3 5 6 6 8 8 8 10 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 38 39 40 38 35 33 28 22 11 6 5 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -24. -25. -28. -30. -33. -39. -44. -49. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 5. 6. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -5. -6. -10. -10. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.1 65.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/08/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 43 43 42 41 40 39 38 39 40 42 40 39 35 35 33 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 43 42 41 40 39 40 41 43 41 40 36 36 34 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 39 38 37 36 37 38 40 38 37 33 33 31 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 31 32 34 32 31 27 27 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT