* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 48 45 45 45 47 47 46 49 52 59 64 62 61 55 49 V (KT) LAND 55 50 48 45 45 45 47 47 46 49 52 59 64 62 61 55 49 V (KT) LGEM 55 49 46 44 42 39 35 31 28 26 27 30 35 42 48 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 40 40 44 41 43 40 33 28 18 5 17 20 35 45 58 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -8 0 0 1 2 1 2 4 -4 -1 -6 0 6 9 5 3 SHEAR DIR 356 351 351 359 355 358 1 3 11 348 305 245 233 240 250 251 242 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.7 27.6 27.6 27.0 26.4 26.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 146 151 152 154 155 152 146 144 146 131 131 124 118 114 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 119 124 128 128 129 130 130 125 122 124 111 110 105 100 96 90 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 2 700-500 MB RH 45 42 41 41 44 50 54 56 63 67 66 62 59 55 51 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 20 18 20 21 24 24 24 23 23 25 30 33 39 43 44 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -9 14 9 10 29 29 78 123 97 77 62 66 58 101 137 144 200 MB DIV 6 -12 9 -2 18 -6 38 7 30 20 54 51 93 90 91 65 21 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -3 0 -2 9 19 14 7 1 1 5 4 20 19 -9 -15 LAND (KM) 956 928 894 851 808 761 791 841 913 1020 1131 1051 1048 1025 970 889 833 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.6 26.2 27.1 28.2 29.5 31.1 32.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.2 65.1 65.0 64.9 65.1 65.4 65.7 66.0 66.1 66.1 65.8 65.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 31 35 38 40 38 36 36 32 24 12 13 4 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):195/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -19. -23. -27. -28. -26. -25. -24. -26. -30. -35. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 3. 3. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 7. 13. 15. 21. 24. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. -9. -6. -3. 4. 9. 7. 6. 0. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.2 65.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 474.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 50 48 45 45 45 47 47 46 49 52 59 64 62 61 55 49 18HR AGO 55 54 52 49 49 49 51 51 50 53 56 63 68 66 65 59 53 12HR AGO 55 52 51 48 48 48 50 50 49 52 55 62 67 65 64 58 52 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 47 47 46 49 52 59 64 62 61 55 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT