* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 52 49 47 46 43 42 39 41 42 46 48 47 45 40 37 V (KT) LAND 65 57 52 49 47 46 43 42 39 41 42 46 48 47 45 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 65 58 53 51 49 47 43 37 32 28 25 25 27 30 33 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 40 42 39 46 47 40 47 41 43 28 16 13 26 42 53 61 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -9 -7 -5 -2 6 3 2 5 9 3 0 -2 3 4 4 -3 SHEAR DIR 345 356 352 355 360 356 10 11 16 13 345 271 244 244 257 264 259 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 138 143 149 152 154 155 152 147 147 144 132 128 121 117 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 115 116 122 127 127 130 132 129 125 124 122 112 108 102 98 95 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 48 44 42 43 39 47 52 57 55 64 66 62 57 50 45 39 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 15 17 18 20 21 22 22 23 22 21 23 25 30 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -35 -10 16 2 36 22 68 107 153 125 107 90 79 88 97 64 200 MB DIV -15 -3 -18 -16 -17 28 8 29 9 13 48 49 55 82 69 34 21 700-850 TADV -1 1 -4 -3 -2 -3 11 12 10 13 -1 3 3 8 13 1 0 LAND (KM) 1009 983 957 911 863 797 782 803 850 941 1058 1073 1018 1024 945 857 775 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.6 25.5 25.8 26.5 27.5 28.7 29.9 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.2 65.1 65.0 64.9 64.9 65.2 65.7 66.1 66.3 66.5 66.5 66.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 5 4 2 2 3 4 6 6 7 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 24 28 33 38 39 38 37 38 30 23 12 6 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -25. -29. -34. -35. -33. -30. -29. -30. -33. -38. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 1. -1. 1. 3. 8. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -22. -23. -26. -24. -23. -19. -17. -18. -20. -25. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.7 65.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 555.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 57 52 49 47 46 43 42 39 41 42 46 48 47 45 40 37 18HR AGO 65 64 59 56 54 53 50 49 46 48 49 53 55 54 52 47 44 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 56 55 52 51 48 50 51 55 57 56 54 49 46 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 52 49 48 45 47 48 52 54 53 51 46 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT