* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/07/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 112 112 108 97 87 74 60 48 45 43 43 44 46 46 44 V (KT) LAND 115 114 112 112 108 97 87 74 60 48 45 43 43 44 46 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 112 108 101 87 78 69 56 46 39 33 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 12 21 24 35 37 37 35 34 34 30 28 31 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -1 0 -1 3 4 13 12 11 4 5 2 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 241 258 253 215 226 237 233 257 230 227 230 230 225 229 227 249 240 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.6 27.9 27.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 152 145 134 129 141 142 142 151 154 152 153 152 154 156 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 132 125 114 108 117 118 118 127 130 127 127 126 128 129 132 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.0 -50.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 3 4 0 2 1 4 4 7 7 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 69 68 69 65 54 40 35 25 20 23 32 40 41 40 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 38 39 37 37 33 28 22 20 17 15 13 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 70 56 51 69 63 79 72 95 99 81 78 88 63 44 29 22 27 200 MB DIV 57 40 35 38 57 85 61 36 0 -18 -7 -4 6 -8 10 4 0 700-850 TADV 9 16 16 16 17 8 2 -11 -34 -14 -13 -14 0 -1 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 116 75 46 56 66 86 137 260 376 430 386 311 267 235 203 185 158 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.6 28.5 29.4 30.3 31.5 31.8 31.5 30.8 29.6 28.6 27.8 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.9 79.5 80.2 80.4 80.7 80.2 78.9 77.3 76.4 76.4 76.6 77.1 77.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 50 47 29 26 21 16 26 35 29 41 47 44 44 46 49 50 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. -0. -3. -9. -18. -29. -38. -45. -50. -52. -55. -58. -60. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -17. -18. -17. -15. -12. -11. -9. -5. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -4. -12. -20. -25. -30. -33. -34. -34. -34. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -7. -18. -28. -41. -55. -67. -70. -72. -72. -71. -69. -69. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 26.6 78.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 7.1% 3.7% 2.7% 2.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 2.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/07/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 28( 65) 20( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 61 18( 68) 0( 68) 0( 68) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 112 112 108 97 87 74 60 48 45 43 43 44 46 46 44 18HR AGO 115 114 112 112 108 97 87 74 60 48 45 43 43 44 46 46 44 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 107 96 86 73 59 47 44 42 42 43 45 45 43 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 101 90 80 67 53 41 38 36 36 37 39 39 37 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 85 75 62 48 36 33 31 31 32 34 34 32 IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 90 80 67 53 41 38 36 36 37 39 39 37 IN 12HR 115 114 112 103 97 93 83 70 56 44 41 39 39 40 42 42 40