* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 61 61 59 55 54 46 39 32 32 32 32 30 25 17 V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 61 61 59 55 54 46 39 32 32 32 32 30 25 17 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 63 62 62 60 55 47 38 31 27 26 25 24 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 20 19 22 29 41 45 50 41 35 24 24 35 52 58 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -3 -4 -2 -3 -3 -5 5 1 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 3 357 353 355 348 343 344 350 15 25 10 7 316 291 288 292 282 SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.3 27.9 28.0 27.1 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 147 140 137 135 134 137 144 144 140 138 138 134 136 125 123 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 126 118 114 111 111 114 120 120 118 115 116 113 115 107 104 101 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -54.0 -55.1 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 57 55 58 59 58 52 48 46 44 43 40 43 41 34 29 30 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 12 13 14 15 18 15 14 11 11 10 10 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -107 -105 -91 -66 -42 -24 -16 -18 -45 -32 -30 -16 -27 -47 -84 -73 -40 200 MB DIV -20 -4 3 -6 -15 17 -21 -10 -51 -21 -13 -17 -20 -7 15 20 5 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 1 1 -3 -6 -9 -5 -10 -1 0 0 -1 14 25 LAND (KM) 869 919 961 976 990 1000 976 921 918 951 1001 1081 1201 1208 1251 1199 1134 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.7 27.2 27.8 28.6 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.5 64.8 65.2 65.3 65.4 65.0 64.7 64.7 64.9 65.4 65.6 65.6 65.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 28 23 24 24 19 20 28 29 26 26 22 13 20 10 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -21. -25. -28. -28. -27. -28. -32. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -5. -6. -14. -21. -28. -28. -28. -28. -30. -35. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.2 64.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.26 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 14.3% 9.6% 7.7% 6.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 11.4% 7.5% 6.5% 3.8% 6.7% 3.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.9% 5.7% 4.7% 3.4% 4.8% 1.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/06/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 62 61 61 59 55 54 46 39 32 32 32 32 30 25 17 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 58 56 52 51 43 36 29 29 29 29 27 22 DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 53 49 48 40 33 26 26 26 26 24 19 DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 48 44 43 35 28 21 21 21 21 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT