* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 106 110 112 110 107 104 97 84 73 64 60 57 57 53 50 V (KT) LAND 100 102 106 110 112 110 107 104 97 84 73 64 60 57 57 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 105 109 111 106 99 91 81 68 56 47 42 40 39 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 4 6 7 19 19 28 30 35 27 32 29 29 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 2 4 3 2 -1 -1 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 335 293 324 306 259 235 225 241 231 251 250 236 234 237 229 236 234 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.6 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.8 27.9 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 166 168 162 149 148 143 142 147 134 144 146 148 148 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 151 151 144 130 126 120 118 122 112 120 120 121 121 118 118 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.6 -50.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 0 1 2 6 7 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 71 72 72 70 63 50 42 37 38 45 50 55 59 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 29 32 33 33 34 35 33 28 24 19 17 15 15 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 69 55 51 68 73 48 62 58 60 53 83 85 66 58 49 33 26 200 MB DIV 52 23 30 40 56 51 87 96 65 35 19 13 5 20 42 29 11 700-850 TADV 0 9 8 8 5 15 12 9 -8 -8 -20 0 -2 -2 2 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 198 240 290 196 110 50 87 158 141 202 319 495 608 658 656 656 656 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.9 24.7 25.5 26.3 28.0 29.6 31.1 32.0 32.3 31.8 30.6 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.8 77.5 78.3 79.0 80.0 80.2 79.6 78.5 77.0 75.7 74.5 73.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 65 60 63 59 51 32 29 34 27 38 22 25 31 34 36 36 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 1. -4. -12. -17. -23. -27. -30. -33. -37. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 5. -2. -9. -16. -19. -22. -22. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 12. 10. 7. 4. -3. -16. -27. -36. -40. -43. -43. -47. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 23.0 76.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.84 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.21 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 21.6% 17.3% 11.0% 8.8% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.9% 26.4% 17.9% 15.2% 11.8% 13.5% 8.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 7.6% 19.2% 9.2% 10.1% 3.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 22.4% 14.8% 12.1% 8.1% 8.8% 2.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/06/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 30( 60) 29( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 34 23( 49) 25( 62) 13( 67) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 106 110 112 110 107 104 97 84 73 64 60 57 57 53 50 18HR AGO 100 99 103 107 109 107 104 101 94 81 70 61 57 54 54 50 47 12HR AGO 100 97 96 100 102 100 97 94 87 74 63 54 50 47 47 43 40 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 90 87 84 77 64 53 44 40 37 37 33 30 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 76 73 66 53 42 33 29 26 26 22 19 IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 81 78 75 68 55 44 35 31 28 28 24 21 IN 12HR 100 102 106 97 91 87 84 81 74 61 50 41 37 34 34 30 27