* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 104 107 109 107 106 103 98 93 81 69 60 51 46 42 38 V (KT) LAND 105 104 104 107 109 107 106 103 98 93 81 69 60 51 46 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 105 107 109 108 102 94 85 75 60 48 39 32 27 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 6 7 11 11 24 25 30 34 45 51 54 53 48 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -3 1 -1 -2 0 3 -1 2 -1 -1 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 337 323 303 281 275 251 216 235 222 237 246 257 252 258 250 256 244 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 166 166 168 156 149 146 146 146 133 134 138 142 143 145 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 152 151 151 137 128 123 122 121 110 109 112 116 117 119 121 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 3 4 1 1 0 3 4 6 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 72 72 73 76 68 59 49 44 41 45 48 55 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 31 32 33 34 35 34 33 27 21 19 15 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 52 55 47 54 71 45 51 43 63 48 78 65 52 10 30 34 34 200 MB DIV 60 55 31 44 44 34 61 74 107 49 23 0 2 11 36 19 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 7 6 5 13 15 18 -8 -2 -19 -8 -11 3 -7 -5 -10 LAND (KM) 134 200 247 293 198 79 83 156 160 222 301 359 429 507 563 615 672 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.1 23.9 24.8 25.6 27.3 28.9 30.5 31.6 32.1 32.2 32.0 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.4 76.0 76.7 77.4 78.2 79.4 79.9 79.8 78.8 77.0 75.5 74.5 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 9 8 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 83 64 59 62 59 48 32 35 34 40 25 18 22 28 30 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -13. -19. -25. -30. -34. -38. -42. -45. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 3. -5. -14. -18. -23. -24. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 2. 4. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -24. -36. -45. -54. -59. -63. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 22.2 75.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.6% 10.6% 7.4% 7.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 11.0% 5.7% 4.0% 3.2% 4.7% 4.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 3.2% 4.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 10.5% 6.0% 4.2% 3.6% 4.7% 1.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 26( 46) 28( 61) 27( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 83 65( 94) 62( 98) 66( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 104 107 109 107 106 103 98 93 81 69 60 51 46 42 38 18HR AGO 105 104 104 107 109 107 106 103 98 93 81 69 60 51 46 42 38 12HR AGO 105 102 101 104 106 104 103 100 95 90 78 66 57 48 43 39 35 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 97 95 94 91 86 81 69 57 48 39 34 30 26 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 84 83 80 75 70 58 46 37 28 23 19 15 IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 83 82 79 74 69 57 45 36 27 22 18 DIS IN 12HR 105 104 104 95 89 85 84 81 76 71 59 47 38 29 24 20 16