* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 95 96 99 102 101 102 100 95 88 80 68 59 54 46 37 V (KT) LAND 100 95 95 96 99 102 101 102 100 95 88 80 68 59 54 46 37 V (KT) LGEM 100 94 92 93 96 102 102 97 87 77 65 52 40 32 26 21 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 7 4 7 12 20 26 33 40 50 54 65 71 68 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 1 0 0 0 -3 0 2 -2 2 3 3 -2 -3 -13 0 -9 SHEAR DIR 348 356 337 313 272 260 240 227 232 227 236 244 261 261 253 248 254 SST (C) 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 168 168 166 166 162 151 149 148 146 145 131 126 127 128 132 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 154 153 151 151 143 131 127 125 122 120 108 103 103 104 107 110 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -50.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 8 6 4 2 2 0 1 0 2 3 5 6 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 71 73 73 73 68 64 57 48 39 40 40 41 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 27 29 32 33 36 36 34 32 29 26 23 25 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 46 57 60 46 57 73 38 43 53 66 41 39 36 8 10 14 -17 200 MB DIV 43 56 57 24 41 48 54 87 81 67 31 11 -23 -4 43 14 36 700-850 TADV 13 0 -1 1 4 5 17 16 9 -12 -27 -38 -23 -26 -17 -22 -16 LAND (KM) 91 144 208 247 293 128 77 114 187 176 202 251 330 403 468 526 577 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.3 23.1 23.9 24.7 26.4 28.0 29.6 31.0 32.2 32.8 33.0 32.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.9 75.5 76.0 76.7 77.4 78.8 79.7 79.9 79.3 77.8 76.3 74.8 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 99 81 64 59 63 52 39 34 41 28 43 17 11 12 12 17 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -9. -15. -19. -24. -27. -32. -36. -40. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -17. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 8. 5. 1. -3. -9. -12. -10. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -5. -4. -1. 2. 1. 2. -0. -5. -12. -20. -32. -41. -46. -54. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 21.5 74.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.45 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 12.1% 8.5% 6.3% 6.2% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.8% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 2.2% 2.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 2.0% 4.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.4% 3.5% 2.9% 2.7% 3.4% 0.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 17( 35) 21( 49) 24( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 61 48( 80) 23( 84) 25( 88) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 95 95 96 99 102 101 102 100 95 88 80 68 59 54 46 37 18HR AGO 100 99 99 100 103 106 105 106 104 99 92 84 72 63 58 50 41 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 100 103 102 103 101 96 89 81 69 60 55 47 38 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 93 96 95 96 94 89 82 74 62 53 48 40 31 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 84 83 84 82 77 70 62 50 41 36 28 19 IN 6HR 100 95 86 80 77 77 76 77 75 70 63 55 43 34 29 21 DIS IN 12HR 100 95 95 86 80 76 75 76 74 69 62 54 42 33 28 20 DIS