* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 105 104 104 105 109 109 108 108 103 99 90 82 73 66 60 52 V (KT) LAND 110 105 104 104 105 109 109 108 108 103 99 90 82 73 66 60 52 V (KT) LGEM 110 105 102 102 103 109 111 105 96 85 72 59 47 36 28 22 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 12 10 6 4 10 16 25 26 45 62 76 76 78 84 87 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 2 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 1 3 4 -2 -9 -8 -9 -10 -16 SHEAR DIR 332 352 1 343 317 284 262 231 239 228 233 233 246 257 265 253 259 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.7 25.5 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 162 166 168 166 168 155 148 145 138 134 132 131 125 119 107 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 149 153 154 152 150 136 127 123 118 116 112 108 101 96 87 79 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -49.9 -51.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 6 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 73 71 73 72 74 65 60 43 38 35 36 36 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 26 26 31 33 35 37 36 37 34 34 33 34 34 38 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 49 61 42 66 35 38 29 82 74 51 21 -72 -46 -6 -29 200 MB DIV 59 52 59 60 42 48 26 66 84 94 31 2 -1 1 -17 0 4 700-850 TADV 21 14 4 -1 0 2 9 19 24 -7 -33 -74 -59 -43 -45 -40 -35 LAND (KM) 40 95 148 215 262 206 101 87 159 116 89 211 383 440 434 420 430 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.2 24.0 25.7 27.4 29.2 30.8 32.3 34.0 35.8 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.4 74.8 75.3 76.0 76.6 78.1 79.2 80.0 79.8 78.5 76.3 73.4 71.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 11 14 13 9 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 84 97 84 63 58 59 51 31 34 16 17 20 32 29 15 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -6. -14. -21. -28. -34. -38. -42. -48. -52. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -18. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 6. 9. 12. 10. 10. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -6. -6. -5. -1. -1. -2. -2. -7. -11. -20. -28. -37. -44. -50. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 20.7 74.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.48 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.11 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.0% 8.6% 6.2% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.0% 1.2% 1.8% 2.3% 2.7% 3.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.3% 3.4% 2.8% 2.8% 0.9% 1.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/05/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 26( 47) 27( 62) 28( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 23 50( 62) 29( 73) 31( 81) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 105 104 104 105 109 109 108 108 103 99 90 82 73 66 60 52 18HR AGO 110 109 108 108 109 113 113 112 112 107 103 94 86 77 70 64 56 12HR AGO 110 107 106 106 107 111 111 110 110 105 101 92 84 75 68 62 54 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 101 105 105 104 104 99 95 86 78 69 62 56 48 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 95 95 94 94 89 85 76 68 59 52 46 38 IN 6HR 110 105 96 90 87 90 90 89 89 84 80 71 63 54 47 41 33 IN 12HR 110 105 104 95 89 85 85 84 84 79 75 66 58 49 42 36 28