* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 44 42 38 35 31 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 44 42 38 35 31 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 46 45 40 36 33 30 27 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 38 33 34 34 35 37 38 49 62 58 53 51 43 34 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -2 -2 0 -8 -6 -10 -14 -3 1 4 8 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 318 327 341 349 352 346 351 345 350 358 7 17 18 14 13 347 305 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.8 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 149 151 141 132 129 131 134 134 135 134 130 128 132 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 133 132 132 121 110 106 108 112 111 112 112 110 108 111 105 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 7 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 56 57 57 57 59 60 56 50 45 44 48 49 43 36 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -86 -86 -84 -93 -103 -113 -104 -57 -33 -23 -38 -50 -6 -2 4 -30 -45 200 MB DIV -25 -19 -33 -27 -16 -7 -11 -16 0 -46 -26 -36 18 23 10 -47 -11 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -1 1 0 -1 2 1 1 0 3 7 21 6 4 1 3 LAND (KM) 810 813 822 851 889 995 1087 1126 1121 1068 1021 1000 1039 1132 1229 1253 1269 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.4 24.9 25.5 26.1 27.3 28.2 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.5 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.4 62.0 62.6 63.3 64.2 64.6 64.6 64.5 64.4 64.6 65.0 65.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 6 3 1 2 2 2 2 3 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 47 53 51 43 21 15 12 13 17 18 19 18 13 10 18 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -23. -32. -41. -46. -50. -55. -58. -58. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -24. -30. -35. -40. -44. -45. -44. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.9 60.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 1.3% 2.0% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/04/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 44 42 38 35 31 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 42 40 36 33 29 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 37 33 30 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 29 26 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT