* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 122 119 118 114 114 112 111 104 95 83 77 68 63 60 51 V (KT) LAND 125 123 121 117 117 113 113 110 109 103 74 63 57 48 37 37 28 V (KT) LGEM 125 108 115 113 112 116 117 114 108 94 62 53 47 41 34 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 12 13 10 9 5 16 26 31 27 36 52 64 63 54 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 9 6 4 0 -1 -1 0 -5 0 0 4 6 0 3 15 12 SHEAR DIR 352 338 327 347 351 288 255 246 224 241 232 222 208 193 192 228 225 SST (C) 29.9 29.5 29.6 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.2 29.3 27.2 25.6 22.6 18.5 13.5 15.5 12.1 10.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 160 162 168 168 170 164 155 157 128 112 92 78 69 71 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 148 150 155 154 155 147 136 136 111 99 83 72 66 67 65 64 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.3 -50.0 -49.0 -48.2 -47.4 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.9 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 74 75 73 76 72 73 63 60 48 37 33 38 41 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 24 23 26 28 32 34 37 39 37 34 36 36 38 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR 87 74 54 54 59 50 71 29 46 20 97 124 131 174 191 196 80 200 MB DIV 140 92 53 55 74 67 54 68 104 104 111 65 75 21 34 46 22 700-850 TADV 15 13 15 9 8 3 1 19 28 27 5 -58 -126 -179 -152 15 0 LAND (KM) 74 11 74 140 221 332 215 161 205 71 0 100 75 101 -29 123 54 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.3 21.2 22.1 23.0 24.8 26.6 28.5 30.6 32.9 35.4 38.1 40.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.4 74.5 75.0 75.4 76.7 77.9 79.0 79.3 78.6 76.8 74.0 70.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 11 13 16 18 18 17 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 87 85 101 96 73 63 56 39 49 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -10. -21. -29. -39. -48. -55. -64. -73. -80. -85. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -3. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 7. 3. 4. 3. 5. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -6. -7. -11. -11. -13. -14. -21. -30. -42. -48. -57. -62. -65. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 19.4 74.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.71 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.55 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 17.5% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 8.4% 4.0% 5.5% 5.1% 3.6% 3.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 3.2% 6.8% 1.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 10.9% 6.0% 2.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/04/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 34( 59) 32( 72) 30( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 83 88( 98) 86(100) 61(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 123 121 117 117 113 113 110 109 103 74 63 57 48 37 37 28 18HR AGO 125 124 122 118 118 114 114 111 110 104 75 64 58 49 38 38 29 12HR AGO 125 122 121 117 117 113 113 110 109 103 74 63 57 48 37 37 28 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 115 111 111 108 107 101 72 61 55 46 35 35 26 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 102 102 99 98 92 63 52 46 37 26 26 17 IN 6HR 125 123 114 108 105 102 102 99 98 92 63 52 46 37 26 26 17 IN 12HR 125 123 121 112 106 102 102 99 98 92 63 52 46 37 26 26 17