* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 128 127 127 127 123 116 116 114 115 117 115 115 110 105 104 V (KT) LAND 130 129 128 127 127 127 123 112 112 110 111 113 111 111 106 101 100 V (KT) LGEM 130 128 125 122 119 118 116 108 110 113 112 110 106 100 92 82 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 6 6 3 2 2 10 5 10 11 8 12 12 18 22 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 2 1 2 8 6 6 2 1 0 3 0 1 4 14 SHEAR DIR 244 255 273 214 263 278 333 341 291 316 300 309 278 257 273 281 260 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.7 30.1 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 150 154 163 171 165 167 167 168 166 162 159 141 140 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 142 142 145 154 161 153 151 148 147 144 138 134 120 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.1 -50.3 -50.2 -49.6 -49.6 -49.0 -49.1 -48.3 -48.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 8 6 6 5 6 2 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 72 72 70 70 72 75 78 77 76 72 69 58 48 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 27 27 28 32 30 28 30 32 36 40 41 44 44 44 47 850 MB ENV VOR 92 101 99 104 111 114 125 127 124 121 110 113 99 95 90 121 132 200 MB DIV 95 120 82 94 93 142 112 87 62 100 41 84 74 89 58 49 21 700-850 TADV 5 4 8 4 6 5 12 9 12 15 7 10 24 17 10 13 1 LAND (KM) 272 322 374 316 252 95 76 35 192 345 458 432 411 412 398 295 188 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.3 15.9 17.4 19.1 20.9 22.6 24.1 25.4 26.7 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.9 74.1 74.4 74.5 74.7 74.6 74.7 74.7 74.9 75.2 75.4 75.7 76.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 37 45 58 67 73 91 98 87 66 64 62 58 60 30 25 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -25. -33. -40. -45. -48. -51. -56. -60. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 16. 19. 18. 16. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -7. -14. -14. -16. -15. -13. -15. -15. -20. -25. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.7 73.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 13.2% 6.1% 4.4% 3.8% 3.3% 2.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 3.6% 4.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.0% 2.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 43( 68) 41( 81) 41( 89) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 86 100(100) 92(100) 95(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 129 128 127 127 127 123 112 112 110 111 113 111 111 106 101 100 18HR AGO 130 129 128 127 127 127 123 112 112 110 111 113 111 111 106 101 100 12HR AGO 130 127 126 125 125 125 121 110 110 108 109 111 109 109 104 99 98 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 120 120 116 105 105 103 104 106 104 104 99 94 93 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 111 107 96 96 94 95 97 95 95 90 85 84 IN 6HR 130 129 120 114 111 110 106 95 95 93 94 96 94 94 89 84 83 IN 12HR 130 129 128 119 113 109 105 94 94 92 93 95 93 93 88 83 82