* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 126 124 123 123 122 124 119 116 113 117 118 118 118 112 108 105 V (KT) LAND 130 126 124 123 123 122 124 102 106 103 107 108 108 108 103 99 95 V (KT) LGEM 130 126 123 120 118 118 121 102 107 111 112 111 109 102 93 82 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 12 8 5 3 2 8 8 9 6 12 11 14 21 29 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 2 4 4 3 6 2 6 0 2 1 3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 266 268 273 271 232 275 117 325 344 314 299 299 264 258 248 260 261 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.9 30.4 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 28.8 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 153 155 157 167 171 167 167 167 168 166 164 163 148 142 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 145 148 149 158 168 155 153 149 148 143 141 139 127 122 123 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -49.4 -49.1 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 8 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 75 73 72 70 68 72 73 75 75 73 72 68 63 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 25 27 29 31 29 28 29 33 36 38 41 41 42 44 850 MB ENV VOR 96 89 101 103 102 105 116 106 120 104 124 98 108 94 88 69 75 200 MB DIV 102 85 114 115 92 96 118 81 87 85 93 53 71 83 70 55 57 700-850 TADV 9 8 6 8 7 7 6 13 4 15 4 8 15 24 18 24 19 LAND (KM) 215 262 311 347 288 155 39 -30 118 291 415 440 403 420 451 302 153 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.9 18.5 20.2 21.9 23.6 25.0 26.1 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.4 73.6 73.9 74.2 74.5 74.8 74.8 74.9 75.0 75.2 75.5 75.7 76.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 33 37 44 52 68 89 77 102 72 65 64 60 64 41 26 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -23. -30. -37. -43. -46. -49. -53. -57. -60. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -9. -9. -7. -2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 6. 5. 5. 10. 13. 16. 18. 16. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. -11. -14. -17. -13. -12. -12. -12. -18. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.5 73.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 8.9% 4.1% 3.4% 2.9% 1.9% 1.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 3.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/02/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 36( 64) 35( 76) 34( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 81 97( 99) 91(100) 74(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 126 124 123 123 122 124 102 106 103 107 108 108 108 103 99 95 18HR AGO 130 129 127 126 126 125 127 105 109 106 110 111 111 111 106 102 98 12HR AGO 130 127 126 125 125 124 126 104 108 105 109 110 110 110 105 101 97 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 120 119 121 99 103 100 104 105 105 105 100 96 92 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 110 112 90 94 91 95 96 96 96 91 87 83 IN 6HR 130 126 117 111 108 108 110 88 92 89 93 94 94 94 89 85 81 IN 12HR 130 126 124 115 109 105 107 85 89 86 90 91 91 91 86 82 78