* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 124 119 114 115 112 113 115 112 108 110 115 117 115 114 114 111 V (KT) LAND 130 124 119 114 115 112 113 115 83 77 80 85 87 84 84 84 81 V (KT) LGEM 130 122 116 111 108 108 114 118 88 85 95 103 107 105 102 94 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 15 14 10 2 1 2 5 9 10 4 7 8 11 15 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 1 1 4 6 6 3 8 4 4 -3 0 2 3 4 9 SHEAR DIR 265 283 262 256 272 200 272 116 351 349 311 285 287 253 258 244 273 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.6 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 151 153 153 161 171 171 171 169 169 170 166 164 160 150 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 143 145 145 153 163 165 163 153 151 149 143 139 135 127 114 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.1 -50.2 -49.7 -49.6 -49.3 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 70 73 74 74 73 73 70 71 71 75 76 76 73 73 73 69 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 24 21 27 27 30 32 29 28 30 34 38 39 42 45 46 850 MB ENV VOR 99 103 105 99 96 107 99 117 112 132 123 137 106 94 86 102 126 200 MB DIV 78 83 84 75 115 103 100 115 89 61 84 105 61 85 72 58 37 700-850 TADV 8 8 5 8 8 5 9 8 13 7 10 2 7 14 12 5 26 LAND (KM) 182 235 278 323 372 248 89 79 -43 117 264 382 354 361 408 458 360 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.7 17.1 18.8 20.5 22.2 23.8 25.3 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.6 74.1 74.5 74.8 75.4 75.8 76.0 76.1 76.1 76.2 76.4 76.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 32 36 42 60 73 89 83 82 66 66 63 60 65 47 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -23. -30. -37. -42. -44. -47. -51. -55. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -13. -15. -12. -6. 1. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. 2. 1. 5. 7. 4. 2. 4. 9. 12. 12. 15. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -15. -18. -17. -15. -18. -22. -20. -15. -13. -15. -16. -16. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.4 73.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 3.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 33( 62) 31( 74) 30( 82) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 64( 68) 78( 93) 82( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 124 119 114 115 112 113 115 83 77 80 85 87 84 84 84 81 18HR AGO 130 129 124 119 120 117 118 120 88 82 85 90 92 89 89 89 86 12HR AGO 130 127 126 121 122 119 120 122 90 84 87 92 94 91 91 91 88 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 121 118 119 121 89 83 86 91 93 90 90 90 87 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 108 109 111 79 73 76 81 83 80 80 80 77 IN 6HR 130 124 115 109 106 105 106 108 76 70 73 78 80 77 77 77 74 IN 12HR 130 124 119 110 104 100 101 103 71 65 68 73 75 72 72 72 69