* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 110 106 103 97 99 103 110 110 106 109 113 113 113 113 111 V (KT) LAND 110 112 110 106 103 97 99 103 110 88 82 85 89 89 88 89 87 V (KT) LGEM 110 114 113 109 104 100 100 107 114 96 92 100 104 104 101 97 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 15 12 8 3 3 2 6 4 6 6 11 4 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 6 4 1 2 1 3 3 10 9 4 8 6 5 4 SHEAR DIR 255 239 233 249 253 258 295 244 15 241 284 280 287 276 244 230 249 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 30.4 30.6 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 155 155 155 155 159 163 171 171 170 168 165 163 155 147 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 152 149 148 147 147 151 155 169 171 157 152 147 141 131 123 116 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -50.0 -49.2 -49.3 -48.7 -49.1 -48.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 8 9 8 9 9 9 7 8 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 61 64 66 70 73 76 77 76 77 76 75 76 76 76 75 71 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 22 21 22 22 26 28 32 32 32 35 38 40 41 44 46 850 MB ENV VOR 76 89 91 107 107 110 108 111 118 136 141 159 170 147 142 142 168 200 MB DIV 41 45 67 84 102 108 127 121 158 83 98 76 65 61 89 67 31 700-850 TADV 8 12 9 9 6 6 6 8 10 11 15 18 14 20 3 3 0 LAND (KM) 119 110 147 202 254 329 291 126 39 -44 126 327 438 484 566 526 446 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.5 14.1 15.3 16.7 18.4 20.3 22.3 24.3 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.3 72.0 72.7 73.3 73.9 74.8 75.4 75.9 76.1 76.1 76.1 75.9 75.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 33 31 32 33 40 56 66 78 74 66 60 63 55 49 33 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -12. -15. -18. -21. -22. -24. -27. -30. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -7. -1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 7. 7. 6. 10. 13. 14. 14. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -4. -7. -13. -11. -7. -0. 0. -4. -1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.5 71.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 10.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.49 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.12 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.2% 26.2% 22.7% 10.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.4% 17.4% 9.7% 6.7% 3.6% 6.4% 5.2% 3.6% Bayesian: 23.4% 8.6% 4.1% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 20.7% 17.4% 12.2% 6.6% 4.0% 2.2% 1.8% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 25( 62) 20( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 11( 26) 39( 55) 89( 95) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 112 110 106 103 97 99 103 110 88 82 85 89 89 88 89 87 18HR AGO 110 109 107 103 100 94 96 100 107 85 79 82 86 86 85 86 84 12HR AGO 110 107 106 102 99 93 95 99 106 84 78 81 85 85 84 85 83 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 97 91 93 97 104 82 76 79 83 83 82 83 81 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 85 87 91 98 76 70 73 77 77 76 77 75 IN 6HR 110 112 103 97 94 91 93 97 104 82 76 79 83 83 82 83 81 IN 12HR 110 112 110 101 95 91 93 97 104 82 76 79 83 83 82 83 81