* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 93 93 90 85 86 90 98 104 101 104 105 112 111 112 108 V (KT) LAND 90 94 93 93 90 85 86 90 98 104 75 79 80 86 85 86 83 V (KT) LGEM 90 95 96 94 92 87 87 91 101 110 80 89 98 103 101 94 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 15 16 17 11 8 1 4 1 4 2 7 9 14 15 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 6 2 4 4 0 1 0 1 12 15 11 8 6 4 1 SHEAR DIR 257 249 235 235 236 241 250 170 216 229 259 298 292 264 279 242 249 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.1 30.7 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.5 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 159 157 157 157 157 161 171 171 171 171 169 166 160 145 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 159 153 150 150 149 148 153 162 171 159 156 151 146 139 124 121 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.3 -50.0 -49.1 -49.0 -48.5 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 9 9 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 2 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 67 70 74 74 77 76 77 74 75 72 69 62 53 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 20 21 21 20 24 25 30 32 31 35 36 41 42 44 44 850 MB ENV VOR 70 76 90 94 105 117 109 120 110 130 134 163 157 162 143 122 119 200 MB DIV 44 52 57 73 94 92 121 131 138 145 94 95 79 85 82 80 57 700-850 TADV 3 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 8 9 16 16 23 24 23 15 16 LAND (KM) 193 144 127 164 219 323 326 183 15 44 29 216 396 382 461 424 259 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.7 13.7 14.1 15.0 16.2 17.7 19.5 21.4 23.3 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.4 71.2 72.0 72.6 73.3 74.4 75.3 75.8 76.1 76.2 76.2 76.2 76.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 68 45 35 34 34 38 52 65 72 79 68 63 64 63 62 28 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -2. -2. 4. 7. 4. 9. 9. 15. 14. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. 3. 0. -5. -4. -0. 8. 14. 11. 14. 15. 22. 21. 22. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.8 70.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 11.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.47 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.8% 37.0% 28.8% 21.8% 11.2% 12.5% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 23.0% 25.0% 16.8% 14.3% 7.5% 9.8% 6.0% 6.0% Bayesian: 31.2% 35.3% 19.8% 16.9% 11.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 27.7% 32.4% 21.8% 17.7% 9.9% 8.5% 6.3% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 14( 24) 12( 33) 10( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 16( 26) 18( 39) 48( 68) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 94 93 93 90 85 86 90 98 104 75 79 80 86 85 86 83 18HR AGO 90 89 88 88 85 80 81 85 93 99 70 74 75 81 80 81 78 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 83 78 79 83 91 97 68 72 73 79 78 79 76 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 77 72 73 77 85 91 62 66 67 73 72 73 70 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 66 67 71 79 85 56 60 61 67 66 67 64 IN 6HR 90 94 85 79 76 72 73 77 85 91 62 66 67 73 72 73 70 IN 12HR 90 94 93 84 78 74 75 79 87 93 64 68 69 75 74 75 72