* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 91 91 89 87 83 88 96 98 100 99 103 107 110 111 109 V (KT) LAND 85 90 91 91 89 87 83 88 96 98 84 83 87 91 93 94 93 V (KT) LGEM 85 91 94 93 91 86 84 87 95 102 78 93 98 102 105 99 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 15 18 12 10 6 4 5 11 6 8 8 12 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 3 0 3 0 0 -3 -2 0 5 9 5 6 1 2 SHEAR DIR 252 251 246 233 235 236 249 266 220 236 240 258 278 286 261 206 219 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.6 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 163 162 159 156 157 159 167 171 171 169 168 166 163 146 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 163 158 156 152 147 148 150 158 171 162 155 151 148 143 126 120 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.2 -50.6 -50.0 -49.5 -49.4 -48.8 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 8 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 59 62 63 65 68 73 76 77 75 77 76 77 76 75 71 65 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 23 21 21 22 20 24 29 30 32 32 35 39 41 44 47 850 MB ENV VOR 54 67 77 87 95 105 111 107 113 121 131 135 155 162 139 130 107 200 MB DIV 67 46 54 55 64 105 78 115 114 143 107 111 86 101 108 105 62 700-850 TADV 3 4 7 5 6 6 7 5 4 10 14 14 19 15 25 2 7 LAND (KM) 235 218 175 162 178 265 372 256 108 101 8 173 362 443 498 426 231 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.7 15.8 17.2 18.9 20.7 22.6 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.3 70.2 71.2 71.8 72.5 73.6 74.4 75.0 75.4 75.6 75.6 75.6 75.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 5 6 6 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 102 80 50 42 37 36 44 59 67 82 73 71 60 63 59 26 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -7. -3. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -0. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 15. 16. 18. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. 3. 11. 13. 15. 15. 18. 22. 25. 26. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.1 69.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 13.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.43 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.3% 44.4% 34.1% 24.5% 16.8% 15.5% 12.9% 14.3% Logistic: 24.1% 26.1% 17.7% 15.4% 8.1% 11.4% 6.6% 6.5% Bayesian: 30.5% 38.3% 26.4% 19.9% 12.0% 6.7% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 29.9% 36.2% 26.1% 19.9% 12.3% 11.2% 6.6% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/30/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 11( 30) 10( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 5( 11) 3( 13) 9( 21) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 90 91 91 89 87 83 88 96 98 84 83 87 91 93 94 93 18HR AGO 85 84 85 85 83 81 77 82 90 92 78 77 81 85 87 88 87 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 79 77 73 78 86 88 74 73 77 81 83 84 83 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 73 71 67 72 80 82 68 67 71 75 77 78 77 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 64 60 65 73 75 61 60 64 68 70 71 70 IN 6HR 85 90 81 75 72 70 66 71 79 81 67 66 70 74 76 77 76 IN 12HR 85 90 91 82 76 72 68 73 81 83 69 68 72 76 78 79 78