* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 71 72 74 77 77 84 91 91 94 97 101 105 105 104 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 71 72 74 77 77 84 91 91 69 75 79 84 84 83 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 72 72 72 71 72 77 83 88 69 77 88 96 99 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 21 15 12 12 7 11 2 3 3 9 11 10 12 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 4 3 0 6 0 6 0 0 3 7 11 13 12 11 SHEAR DIR 264 250 247 251 253 228 225 236 239 270 251 267 299 269 276 280 270 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.4 30.1 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 166 166 166 161 156 156 156 161 167 171 171 168 170 164 159 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 166 163 163 157 149 147 146 151 158 166 159 154 154 146 139 124 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.4 -50.3 -49.6 -49.3 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 9 10 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 56 57 57 58 60 66 71 74 75 74 78 78 76 73 71 63 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 23 23 23 25 23 27 30 28 31 34 37 41 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR 48 60 58 64 77 98 110 108 113 109 121 135 139 152 176 176 190 200 MB DIV 95 91 67 64 78 75 110 90 127 118 138 68 128 109 125 88 84 700-850 TADV 17 12 9 1 8 7 8 8 9 7 11 22 19 23 24 31 19 LAND (KM) 352 296 242 224 172 193 287 338 243 96 101 -13 160 367 483 531 491 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.3 15.0 16.0 17.4 18.9 20.7 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.1 68.3 69.4 70.3 71.3 72.6 73.6 74.3 74.9 75.4 75.6 75.8 75.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 5 5 5 6 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 72 83 98 71 46 36 38 47 61 65 71 64 69 59 59 51 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 2. -1. 4. 7. 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 12. 12. 19. 26. 26. 29. 32. 36. 40. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.2 67.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.46 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.63 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.4% 34.9% 23.4% 19.1% 13.3% 14.9% 13.5% 17.1% Logistic: 6.1% 12.3% 6.2% 6.1% 3.0% 6.7% 5.0% 6.8% Bayesian: 4.1% 4.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 2.5% 3.8% 1.7% Consensus: 9.5% 17.2% 10.4% 8.5% 5.5% 8.0% 7.4% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 5( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 2( 4) 5( 9) 5( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 68 71 72 74 77 77 84 91 91 69 75 79 84 84 83 18HR AGO 65 64 65 68 69 71 74 74 81 88 88 66 72 76 81 81 80 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 65 67 70 70 77 84 84 62 68 72 77 77 76 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 58 61 61 68 75 75 53 59 63 68 68 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT