* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 62 63 64 68 70 76 88 94 96 94 102 102 106 104 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 62 63 64 68 70 76 88 94 83 80 88 88 92 90 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 64 63 62 61 60 62 69 76 83 77 88 97 101 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 19 15 13 12 7 5 1 3 8 11 11 16 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 2 3 3 4 6 2 1 1 0 5 4 7 9 6 SHEAR DIR 254 266 254 248 254 241 251 235 241 306 259 256 262 236 256 243 253 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.3 30.3 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 166 166 165 160 156 156 159 163 170 171 165 168 168 162 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 169 166 163 162 154 148 148 151 155 164 163 152 153 151 143 130 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -50.5 -50.2 -49.4 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 53 53 55 57 57 65 69 75 73 73 73 77 75 75 74 68 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 22 23 23 22 22 22 24 29 30 30 30 37 39 45 45 850 MB ENV VOR 43 51 63 59 61 85 98 111 105 125 107 131 124 168 170 203 189 200 MB DIV 92 75 83 73 56 84 70 97 108 112 124 100 97 128 112 84 59 700-850 TADV 14 16 10 5 5 7 5 8 8 2 10 14 18 16 25 34 35 LAND (KM) 394 366 304 248 223 167 214 310 296 159 85 -11 67 288 498 526 583 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.5 15.4 16.9 18.4 19.9 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.5 66.8 68.1 69.1 70.1 71.6 72.8 73.7 74.4 74.9 75.3 75.5 75.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 9 6 5 5 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 77 74 79 99 78 42 36 40 53 63 70 65 67 64 59 49 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 2. 7. 8. 7. 6. 14. 16. 21. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 17. 28. 34. 36. 34. 42. 42. 46. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.1 65.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.46 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.50 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 334.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.1% 11.2% 7.8% 7.3% 10.1% 12.5% 17.4% Logistic: 1.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% 2.0% 4.2% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.6% Consensus: 0.8% 7.5% 4.1% 2.8% 2.5% 3.9% 5.2% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/29/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 62 63 64 68 70 76 88 94 83 80 88 88 92 90 18HR AGO 60 59 60 60 61 62 66 68 74 86 92 81 78 86 86 90 88 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 57 58 62 64 70 82 88 77 74 82 82 86 84 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 52 56 58 64 76 82 71 68 76 76 80 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT