* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 34 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 34 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 34 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 24 29 32 39 48 51 57 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 0 0 -3 -2 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 260 264 265 265 271 277 280 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 137 134 131 131 131 134 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.9 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 39 40 43 44 46 46 47 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 4 4 6 6 1 1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 6 6 4 2 -10 -6 -7 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 5 5 5 6 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1722 1678 1635 1575 1516 1362 1183 986 791 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.0 139.3 139.6 140.1 140.6 142.0 143.7 145.6 147.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 16 13 8 5 5 5 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -24. -35. -41. -47. -50. -52. -52. -54. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -20. -27. -37. -45. -50. -55. -58. -60. -59. -58. -60. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 139.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 364.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##