* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 09/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 67 72 78 84 86 90 94 96 92 91 95 104 109 112 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 67 72 78 84 86 90 94 96 92 91 78 75 80 83 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 65 69 75 78 83 86 91 98 104 109 99 90 103 104 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 8 6 15 7 11 3 3 9 9 4 7 6 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 11 12 9 0 5 0 8 0 2 3 7 7 12 10 8 SHEAR DIR 209 218 240 260 274 250 273 238 342 50 23 341 332 254 256 244 239 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 172 174 170 169 167 166 159 155 154 155 161 165 170 171 170 168 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 174 170 169 167 164 154 148 145 145 152 155 162 161 157 154 149 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.4 -50.0 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 10 11 9 10 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 51 55 56 60 65 68 71 71 72 74 72 69 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 27 28 29 26 26 28 35 39 44 850 MB ENV VOR 57 58 58 56 63 73 89 103 114 131 128 118 124 146 164 194 205 200 MB DIV 86 109 94 95 121 45 73 77 83 94 102 72 69 81 76 65 89 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 6 4 5 7 5 4 1 2 4 11 11 11 21 19 LAND (KM) 324 350 372 389 331 223 167 225 333 357 231 79 46 -22 92 318 435 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.8 17.1 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.3 63.0 64.6 66.1 67.5 69.9 71.7 73.2 74.3 75.0 75.6 76.1 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 10 8 6 5 5 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 47 62 79 72 82 41 35 39 48 66 69 74 69 67 63 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 8. 8. 9. 4. 2. 4. 12. 16. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 22. 28. 34. 36. 40. 44. 46. 42. 41. 45. 54. 59. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.7 61.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 09/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.82 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.82 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 51.6% 36.7% 23.0% 17.2% 38.7% 41.7% 51.5% Logistic: 11.2% 37.9% 22.2% 21.5% 12.5% 17.5% 14.6% 12.1% Bayesian: 5.8% 27.3% 11.4% 0.3% 0.2% 9.0% 29.8% 3.2% Consensus: 10.2% 38.9% 23.4% 14.9% 9.9% 21.7% 28.7% 22.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 09/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 09/28/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 8( 8) 8( 15) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 61 67 72 78 84 86 90 94 96 92 91 78 75 80 83 18HR AGO 50 49 54 60 65 71 77 79 83 87 89 85 84 71 68 73 76 12HR AGO 50 47 46 52 57 63 69 71 75 79 81 77 76 63 60 65 68 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 51 57 59 63 67 69 65 64 51 48 53 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT